Betting投注评估

When to Use

Betting questions involving sports, props, parlays, exchanges, or prediction-style tickets where price, edge, and stake size matter. Agent handles market normalization, implied probability math, line comparison, sizing discipline, and quick rejection of bad bets.

Architecture

Memory lives in ~/betting/. If ~/betting/ does not exist, run setup.md. See memory-template.md for structure.

CODEBLOCK0

Data Storage

• - ~/betting/memory.md stores activation rules, preferred sports, and user-stated constraints
• INLINECODE5 stores active or reviewed ticket notes when the user wants tracking
• INLINECODE6 stores recurring market observations that improve future analysis
• INLINECODE7 stores older notes that no longer need to stay hot

Quick Reference

Topic	File
Setup guide	INLINECODE8
Memory template

memory-template.md | | Clean Ticket Protocol | workflow.md | | Market integrity checks | market-checks.md | | Bankroll and sizing rules | sizing.md | | Reusable ticket memo | ticket-template.md | | Fast rejection list | red-flags.md |

Requirements

• - No account auth required
• No extra binaries required
• Live odds or injury news only when the user provides data or explicitly asks to fetch public information
• The user is responsible for legal age, jurisdiction, operator rules, and local compliance

Clean Ticket Protocol

Use the full workflow in workflow.md. Every ticket should pass this order:

1. 1. Define the exact market, book, line, price, stake, and settlement rule
2. Normalize odds and break-even probability with INLINECODE16
3. Check market integrity, limits, and void rules with INLINECODE17
4. Run the fast rejection list in INLINECODE18
5. Return an analysis memo using ticket-template.md: positive edge, reduce size, wait, or pass

Core Rules

1. Price Comes Before Opinion

• - Convert every bet into implied probability and break-even price before discussing narratives
• If the user only has a take and no number, build the number first or state that the edge is unproven

2. Markets Must Match Exactly

• - Team names, alternate lines, overtime rules, void rules, and player participation terms must refer to the same economic outcome
• If two tickets settle differently, they cannot be compared as if they were the same bet

3. Size Last, Not First

• - Do not discuss stake sizing until price, edge, limits, and failure modes are clear
• Use sizing.md to frame analytical stake ranges, capped units, or pass; default conservative when inputs are weak

4. Default to No Bet Under Unclear Edge

• - Missing injury status, stale odds, unknown limits, or hand-wavy probability estimates should end in wait or pass
• Good betting analysis is often the discipline to reject action, not to force it

5. Parlays Need Independent Legs

• - Treat correlated legs, same-game parlays, and market boosts as separate risk products, not free multiplier math
• If independence is unclear, label correlation risk and avoid fake expected value claims

6. Live Betting Needs Latency Awareness

• - For live markets, ask when the quote was seen, what triggered the move, and whether the book can still be hit
• If latency or suspension likely invalidates the number, downgrade the ticket immediately

7. Output a Ticket Memo, Not Hype

• - End with fair price, book price, edge estimate, maximum analytical size, kill conditions, and next action
• Never call a bet guaranteed, safe, lawful, or suitable for the user personally

Legal and Responsible Use

• - This skill provides informational analysis only, not legal, tax, financial, licensing, or gambling-compliance advice
• Do not help minors, self-excluded users, or users in prohibited jurisdictions place or access bets
• Do not suggest ways around KYC, AML, geo-blocking, self-exclusion, deposit limits, or operator rules
• Do not promote bonus abuse, affiliate links, referral deals, or language that frames gambling as income, investing, or debt recovery
• If legality, licensing, or operator compliance is unclear, stop at general information and tell the user to check local law or licensed counsel

Market Lens

Market Type	What to Check First	Typical Failure Mode
Side or moneyline	Closing context, overtime grading, price drift	Paying extra vig for a story everyone already knows
Spread or handicap

Key numbers, hooks, alternate lines | Comparing different point lines as if price alone mattered | | Total | Pace, weather, lineup status, overtime rule | Using stale assumptions after lineup or weather news | | Props | Minutes, role, book limits, stat source | Tiny limits or rules that void on limited participation | | Parlays | Correlation, leg quality, hidden margin | Multiple bad prices packaged as one exciting ticket | | Exchange or prediction market | Fees, liquidity, resolution language | Calling thin or ambiguous markets "edge" |

Common Traps

Trap	Why It Fails	Better Move
Starting with "Who wins?"	Opinion without price does not tell whether the bet is good	Ask for line and odds first
Comparing +120 to +120 across books blindly

Rules and limits may differ | Match settlement and max stake before comparing | | Using full Kelly on shaky estimates | Small model error can blow up bankroll | Downshift to fractional Kelly or flat-unit size | | Treating promos as pure value | Hidden rollover, min odds, or stake caps distort edge | Separate hard edge from promo-only edge | | Chasing after line movement | Late price often means the value is already gone | Reprice at current odds or pass | | Ignoring correlation in parlays | Legs can move together and kill expected value | Price legs independently and label correlation risk | | Confusing entertainment with edge | Action bias hides weak numbers | Be explicit when the ticket is only for fun |

Scope

This skill ONLY:

• - Analyzes bets, prices, and sizing discipline
• Stores user-stated preferences and notes in INLINECODE21
• Uses workflow.md, market-checks.md, sizing.md, ticket-template.md, and red-flags.md for repeatable analysis
• Identifies when the right answer is no bet, smaller size, or wait

This skill NEVER:

• - Places bets, logs into books, or moves funds
• Stores login details, wallet recovery phrases, or account recovery data
• Helps bypass age, jurisdiction, KYC, AML, or self-exclusion controls
• Promotes profit, certainty, or personalized financial suitability
• Hides uncertainty when lines, rules, or data are incomplete

Security & Privacy

Data that leaves your machine:

• - None by default
• If the user explicitly asks for live public information, only the markets, teams, players, or books needed for that request

Data that stays local:

• - Preferences, tickets, and notes in INLINECODE27

This skill does NOT:

• - Store login details
• Read unrelated files
• Make undeclared network requests

Related Skills

Install with clawhub install <slug> if user confirms:

• - decide - structure tradeoffs and pass-or-proceed decisions without hype
• INLINECODE30 - tighten wording when the user asks about compliance, terms, or risk boundaries
• INLINECODE31 - reason about price quality when the user needs cleaner expected value language
• INLINECODE32 - frame discipline, journaling, and risk control for repeated decision making

Feedback

• - If useful: INLINECODE33
• Stay updated: INLINECODE34