Global Market Analyst

Global asset analysis — VN stocks, US equities, Forex, Commodities, Crypto, ETF — real-time technical + fundamental + valuation + return estimation.

⚠️ Most Important Principle

Historical CAGR ≠ expectation from current price.
Always ask: "If buying TODAY at this price, what is the P/E? Is it still cheap?"

Example: MCH CAGR 73%/year from the 30k bottom → but at current price 161k, P/E ~37x is expensive.
Sharpe 2.19 is historical from low price zone — does not apply to buyers today.

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Step 0: Understand Requirements & Check Macro

Before analyzing any asset, always check:

🇻🇳 Macro Việt Nam

Current macro context (updated 23/03/2026):

• - 🔴 VN-Index: ~1,604 — down 14% in the month, foreign net selling -27,591 tỷ YTD
• 🟢 FTSE upgrade VN → effective 21/09/2026 → biggest catalyst
• SBV rate: Holding, following FED
• GDP target 2026: 6.5-7%

🇺🇸 Macro Mỹ

• - FED rate: 3.5-3.75% (held 18/3/2026, hawkish — only 1 cut expected in 2026)
• PCE inflation: 2.7% (raised from 2.4%)
• Unemployment: ~4.0% (stable)
• S&P 500: In correction ~5-8% from ATH, tech leading
• US 10Y yield: ~4.2-4.4%

🌍 Global Macro

• - 🔴 Iran War ongoing — dầu WTI $95-99, threatening Strait of Hormuz
• Vàng XAUUSD: ~$4,362 (corrected -15% from ATH $5,608)
• DXY (USD Index): ~103-105
• BNB: Risk-off pressure, ecosystem still strong (TVL $6.7B, #3 globally)
• ECB rate: ~3.0%, gradually cutting
• BOJ rate: ~0.5%, just raised from 0.25%

Portfolio impact:

• - 🟢 Accumulate: MBB (P/E 6.5x), Vàng, S&P 500 ETF (VOO)
• 🟢 DCA: FPT (P/E 13-14x, unusually cheap but below EMA200)
• ⏳ Hold: BNB (wait for FED cut), TCB, AAPL, MSFT
• 🔴 Avoid: VCB (P/E expensive), BĐS (rates rising), crypto mới, meme coins
• 🟢 New buys: GAS/PVS (benefiting from high oil), Energy ETF (XLE)

See details: references/macro-update-2026-03.md, references/crypto-analysis.md, references/gold-analysis.md.

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Determine:

• - Asset class: VN stocks? US stocks? Forex? Gold? Crypto? ETF?
• Objective: Find new opportunities? Analyze a specific ticker? Estimate returns? Scan the market?
• Holding period: Short-term (< 3 months), medium-term (3-12 months), long-term (> 1 year)
• Capital: For portfolio allocation and risk estimation
• Risk appetite: Conservative / Balanced / Aggressive

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Step 1: Real-time Data (TradingView Scanner)

TradingView scanner works WITHOUT auth:

🇻🇳 VN Stocks

CODEBLOCK0

🇺🇸 US Stocks

CODEBLOCK1

🌍 Global Markets (Crypto, Forex, Commodities)

CODEBLOCK2

Manually fetch multiple tickers (any market):

import urllib.request, json

# VN stocks
payload = {
    "symbols": {"tickers": ["HOSE:MBB","HOSE:TCB","HOSE:FPT"]},
    "columns": ["name","close","change","volume","RSI","EMA20","EMA50","EMA200",
                "MACD.macd","MACD.signal","BB.upper","BB.lower",
                "price_52_week_high","price_52_week_low","Stoch.K","Stoch.D"]
}
req = urllib.request.Request(
    "https://scanner.tradingview.com/vietnam/scan",
    data=json.dumps(payload).encode(),
    headers={"Content-Type": "application/json", "User-Agent": "Mozilla/5.0"},
    method="POST"
)

# US stocks → "https://scanner.tradingview.com/america/scan"
# Crypto → "https://scanner.tradingview.com/crypto/scan"
# Forex → "https://scanner.tradingview.com/forex/scan"
# Commodities → "https://scanner.tradingview.com/cfd/scan"

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Step 2: Technical Analysis (Applies to ALL asset classes)

Read each indicator in priority order:

1. EMA200 — Check FIRST

• - close > EMA200 ✅ → Long-term uptrend intact → consider buying
• INLINECODE4 ❌ → Long-term downtrend → be cautious, buy only with a clear catalyst

⚠️ Do NOT buy oversold assets below EMA200 (unless there is a clear catalyst)

2. RSI(14)

RSI	Signal	Action
< 30	🟢🟢 Extreme oversold	Consider strong buy if above EMA200
30–40

🟢 Oversold | DCA if above EMA200 |

| 40–60 | 🟡 Neutral | Hold / wait | | 60–70 | 🔴 Near overbought | Do not add positions | | > 70 | 🔴🔴 Overbought | Consider taking profit |

3. MACD

• - macd > signal → 🟢 Bullish momentum
• INLINECODE6 → 🔴 Bearish momentum
• MACD just crossed above signal in negative zone → strong buy signal

4. Bollinger Bands

• - close ≤ BB.lower → Near lower band → potential bounce
• BB squeezing → strong move coming, wait for breakout

5. Stochastic K/D

• - K < 20: Oversold | K > 80: Overbought
• K cắt lên D ở vùng < 20 → mua signal

6. 52W Position

pos52 = (close - low52w) / (high52w - low52w) × 100

• - < 20%: Near 52W low — good value zone
• > 80%: Near 52W high — high momentum but risky

🎯 Buy Zone Score (composite)

score = 0
if rsi < 30: score += 3
elif rsi < 40: score += 2
if close > ema200: score += 2
if pe_discount > 20%: score += 3  # P/E < Fair P/E - 20%
elif pe_discount > 0: score += 2
if pos52 < 20: score += 2
elif pos52 < 40: score += 1
if close <= bb_lower * 1.02: score += 2
if macd > macd_signal: score += 1
# Max: 15 điểm
# ≥ 10: Mua mạnh | 7-9: DCA | 4-6: Theo dõi | < 4: Bỏ qua

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Step 3: Valuation Analysis — MANDATORY (Stocks & ETF)

Do NOT recommend BUY without checking valuation.

P/E Analysis

Upside = (Fair P/E - Current P/E) / Fair P/E × 100%

Upside	Assessment
> 25%	🟢 Very cheap — buy
10–25%

🟡 Slightly cheap — accumulate | | 0–10% | 🟡 Fair — OK | | < 0% | 🔴 Expensive — wait for correction | | < -15% | 🔴🔴 Very expensive — avoid |

Fair P/E by VN sector:

• - Ngân hàng: 10–12x | Công nghệ: 20–25x | Thép: 8–12x
• Tiêu dùng: 15–22x | BĐS: 12–18x | Dầu khí: 10–14x

Fair P/E by US sector: (Xem chi tiết references/us-equities.md)

• - Tech (mega): 25–30x | Tech (growth): 30–45x | Healthcare: 16–20x
• Financials (banks): 10–13x | Energy: 10–14x | Consumer Disc.: 22–28x
• US dùng Forward P/E nhiều hơn Trailing P/E
• PEG Ratio = P/E / EPS Growth Rate → PEG < 1.0 = rẻ tương đối

See details in references/sector-fundamentals.md (VN) và references/us-equities.md (US)

Other Fundamental Metrics

• - ROE > 15%: tốt | > 20%: xuất sắc
• D/E < 1.0: ít nợ (ngân hàng ngoại lệ)
• FCF dương: công ty sinh tiền thực
• EPS CAGR: driver chính của giá dài hạn

See full framework in references/financial-analysis-knowledge.md

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Step 4: Sector & Catalyst Analysis

🇻🇳 VN Sectors

Reference references/sector-fundamentals.md và references/sector-update-2026.md.

Catalyst VN 2026-2028:

• - Nâng hạng thị trường FTSE/MSCI → vốn ngoại đổ vào
• Lãi suất giảm → P/E hợp lý cao hơn, BĐS phục hồi
• Đầu tư công tăng → thép, vật liệu xây dựng
• GDP 6-7%/năm → ngân hàng, tiêu dùng

🇺🇸 US Sectors

Reference references/us-equities.md.

Catalyst US 2026-2028:

• - AI revolution → NVDA, MSFT, GOOG, META, AMZN
• FED rate cuts → growth stocks rally, REITs phục hồi
• Infrastructure spending → industrials, materials
• GLP-1 drugs → LLY, NVO, healthcare sector

Always answer:

1. 1. Where is the sector in the cycle? (growth / peak / recession / bottom)
2. What are the catalysts for the next 1-3 years?
3. What are the main risks?

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Step 5: US Equities Analysis

When user asks about US stocks (AAPL, NVDA, TSLA, MSFT, GOOG, META, AMZN, v.v.):

Workflow:

1. 1. Scan data: scan_global.py --market us hoặc fetch trực tiếp
2. Technical: Áp dụng Step 2 (EMA200, RSI, MACD, BB)
3. Valuation: Forward P/E vs sector average, PEG ratio
4. Earnings: Check earnings calendar — KHÔNG mua ngay trước earnings
5. Macro: FED rate path, US 10Y yield, DXY ảnh hưởng

Key Metrics for US Stocks:

• - Forward P/E (quan trọng hơn trailing)
• PEG Ratio (< 1.0 = rẻ, 1.0-2.0 = hợp lý, > 2.0 = đắt)
• FCF Yield (FCF / Market Cap — > 5% = tốt)
• Revenue Growth (YoY — quan trọng cho tech)
• Gross Margin (>60% cho software, >40% cho hardware)

US vs VN Differences:

• - US trade pre/after-market → gap risk cao hơn
• Earnings season 4 lần/năm → stock có thể ±20% trong 1 ngày
• Options market rất active → đọc implied volatility
• Buyback programs → hỗ trợ giá (AAPL buyback $100B+/năm)
• US dùng fractional shares → mua $10 NVDA được

See details: references/us-equities.md

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Step 6: Forex Analysis

When user asks about forex (EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, v.v.):

Workflow:

1. 1. Scan: INLINECODE17
2. Macro check: Interest rate differential giữa 2 đồng tiền
3. Technical: EMA, RSI, Fibonacci, pivot points
4. Session timing: Asian/European/US session
5. Risk: Swap rates, leverage management

Key Pairs & Factors:

Cặp	Key Factors
EUR/USD	FED vs ECB rates, trade balance EU-US
USD/JPY

FED vs BOJ, risk sentiment, carry trade |

| GBP/USD | BOE rate, Brexit effects, UK economy | | AUD/USD | RBA rate, commodities (iron ore), China demand | | USD/VND | SBV policy, trade balance VN, FDI flows |

Session Times (VN time):

• - London-NY overlap (19:30-23:00 VN) = best time to trade
• Asian session (06:00-14:00) = range-bound, phù hợp range trading
• London open (14:00-17:00) = breakout Asian range

Risk Management Forex:

• - 2% rule: Max risk 2% account per trade
• Leverage max 1:30 cho beginner
• ATR-based stop loss: SL = 1.5-2x ATR(14)

See details: references/forex-guide.md

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Step 7: Commodities Analysis (Gold, Oil, Silver)

When user asks about gold (XAUUSD), oil (WTI/Brent), silver (XAGUSD):

Workflow:

1. 1. Scan: INLINECODE19
2. Macro: Real rates (US 10Y - CPI), DXY, geopolitics
3. Technical: EMA200, RSI, Fibonacci retracement
4. Specific factors: (xem bên dưới)

🥇 Gold (XAUUSD):

• - Bullish khi: Real rates giảm, DXY yếu, risk-off, NHTW mua vàng
• Bearish khi: Real rates tăng, DXY mạnh, risk-on
• Key levels: Round numbers ($4000, $4500, $5000)
• Seasonal: Thường mạnh Q1 và Q4
• See details: INLINECODE20

🛢️ Oil (WTI / Brent):

• - Bullish khi: OPEC+ cắt sản lượng, geopolitics (Iran/ME), demand tăng
• Bearish khi: Recession fears, OPEC+ tăng sản lượng, US shale tăng
• Key data: EIA Weekly Inventory, Baker Hughes Rig Count
• Correlation: USD/CAD (inverse), energy stocks (positive)

🥈 Silver (XAGUSD):

• - Dual nature: Industrial metal + precious metal
• Gold/Silver Ratio: > 80 = bạc rẻ tương đối, < 60 = bạc đắt
• Volatile hơn vàng: Beta ~1.5-2x so với gold

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Step 8: Global ETF Analysis

When user asks about ETF (VOO, QQQ, VNM, v.v.):

Workflow:

1. 1. Identify need: Core portfolio? Sector bet? Country exposure?
2. Compare: Expense ratio, tracking error, AUM, liquidity
3. Technical: Áp dụng EMA200, RSI cho ETF chart
4. DCA plan: Phân bổ theo risk profile

Quick ETF Recommendations:

Purpose	ETF	Expense	Notes
Core US	VOO / IVV	0.03%	S&P 500, portfolio foundation
Tech/Growth

QQQ / QQQM | 0.15-0.20% | NASDAQ 100, AI exposure |

| VN Exposure | VNM | 0.66% | VanEck Vietnam ETF | | Emerging Markets | VWO / IEMG | 0.08-0.09% | Broad EM | | Bonds | BND / AGG | 0.03% | US total bond | | Gold | GLD / IAU | 0.25-0.40% | Physical gold ETF | | All-World | VT | 0.07% | Toàn cầu, lazy portfolio |

DCA Portfolios:

Conservative: VOO 40% + BND 30% + VWO 15% + GLD 15%
Balanced: VOO 45% + QQQ 20% + VWO 15% + BND 10% + GLD 10%
Aggressive: QQQ 35% + VOO 25% + VWO/VNM 20% + ARKK/SOXX 10% + GLD 10%

See details: references/global-etf.md

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Step 9: Portfolio Management

When user asks about portfolio management, rebalancing, asset allocation, or building a new portfolio:

Option 1: Analyze Existing Portfolio → Rebalance

CODEBLOCK7

Input:

• - --portfolio : Current portfolio dạng "MÃ:tỷ_trọng%,..."
• INLINECODE23 : Total capital (VND)
• INLINECODE24 : conservative | balanced | INLINECODE27

Output:

• - Portfolio analysis: return, volatility, Sharpe, max drawdown
• Assessment: concentration, diversification, risk fit
• Correlation matrix between assets
• Rebalance recommendation via Markowitz Mean-Variance
• Before/after rebalance comparison
• Bear/Base/Bull return scenarios
• Implementation plan

Supported asset classes: VN stocks, US stocks, ETF, crypto (BTC/ETH/BNB/SOL...), gold (GOLD/XAUUSD), forex, bonds (BOND), cash (CASH)

Option 2: Scan Market → Recommend New Portfolio

CODEBLOCK8

Input:

• - --capital : Total capital (VND)
• INLINECODE29 : conservative | balanced | INLINECODE32
• INLINECODE33 : vn,us,crypto,gold (chọn thị trường)
• INLINECODE35 : short (< 3 tháng) | medium (3-12 tháng) | long (> 1 năm)

Output:

• - Real-time TradingView scan to find top assets by score
• Allocation by risk profile:

- Conservative: 50% bonds/cash, 30% blue chip, 15% gold, 5% crypto
- Balanced: 30% blue chip, 25% growth, 20% gold, 15% ETF, 10% crypto
- Aggressive: 35% growth, 25% crypto, 20% midcap, 15% forex/commodities, 5% commodities

• - Specific ticker list + allocation + rationale
• Expected return range (Bear/Base/Bull)
• Suggested DCA schedule by horizon

Risk Profiles:

Profile	Max single	Max equity	Max crypto	Min safe assets	Target Vol
Conservative	25%	40%	5%	35%	12%
Balanced

30% | 60% | 15% | 20% | 18% |

| Aggressive | 35% | 80% | 25% | 5% | 25% |

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Step 10: Return Estimation

CODEBLOCK9

Script calculates from historical data:

• - CAGR 3Y/5Y (compound annual growth rate)
• Volatility hàng năm (annualized volatility)
• Max Drawdown (maximum drawdown from peak)
• Sharpe Ratio (return/risk)
• 3 scenarios Bear/Base/Bull × 6M/1Y/3Y/5Y

⚠️ Always remind user:

• - Historical CAGR is from past ENTRY price, not current price
• If current P/E is already high → realistic estimate is lower than historical CAGR
• Compare with: bank deposit 5.5%/year (VN), US Treasury 4.5%/year, VN-Index ~11%/year, S&P 500 ~12%/year

See full methodology in references/return-estimation.md

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Step 11: Portfolio Allocation (Global)

When user asks how to allocate capital:

Sizing by Sharpe

Sharpe	Max allocation
> 1.5	35%
1.0–1.5

25% |

| 0.5–1.0 | 15% | | < 0.5 | 10% |

Sizing by Max Drawdown

Max DD	Max allocation
< 30%	30%
30–50%

20% |

| 50–70% | 10% | | > 70% | 5% |

Global Portfolio Framework:

Asset Class	Conservative	Balanced	Aggressive
VN Stocks	20%	25%	30%
US Stocks/ETF

30% | 35% | 35% |

| Bonds/Cash | 25% | 10% | 5% | | Gold | 15% | 15% | 10% | | Crypto | 0% | 5% | 10% | | Forex/Commodities | 0% | 5% | 10% | | EM ETF | 10% | 5% | 0% |

DCA Strategy

• - Don't go all-in at once
• Split into 3-5 purchases over 4-8 weeks
• Buy more when RSI drops to oversold zone
• ETF DCA: Same day each month, don't time the market

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Step 12: Output Formats

📊 VN Stock Output

CODEBLOCK10

🇺🇸 US Stock Output

CODEBLOCK11

💱 Forex Output

CODEBLOCK12

🏆 Commodity Output

CODEBLOCK13

📈 ETF Output

## 📈 [ETF] — [Name]
Price: $XXX.XX | YTD: +/-X.XX% | Expense: X.XX% | Yield: X.X%

### Technical
- RSI: XX.X | EMA200: $XXX [▲/▼]
- Drawdown từ ATH: -X.X%

### So sánh
- vs S&P 500: [outperform/underperform] XX%
- vs category: [ranking]

### DCA Estimate ($XXX/tháng)
- 5 năm: ~$XX,XXX (gốc $XX,XXX, lãi ~$XX,XXX)
- 10 năm: ~$XX,XXX

### Conclusion
[🟢 DCA / 🟡 CHỜ / 🔴 TRÁNH]

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Step 13: Swing Trading (VN)

When user asks about swing trading, scalping, day trading, or short-term trading (2-10 days):

Full reference: INLINECODE40

Quick Workflow

1. 1. Screening: Chạy swing screener tìm mã phù hợp

CODEBLOCK15

1. 2. Technical check (swing-specific):

- RSI divergence (bullish/bearish) trên D1 - MACD crossover position (vùng âm = mua mạnh) - Bollinger squeeze → chờ breakout - ADX > 25 → trend đủ mạnh để swing

1. 3. Entry criteria:

- R:R tối thiểu 1:2 (KHÔNG trade nếu < 1:2) - Volume xác nhận (> 1.5x avg 20 phiên) - Stop loss xác định TRƯỚC khi vào lệnh

1. 4. Position sizing:

- 2% rule: Max risk 2% vốn per trade - Max 3-5 vị thế swing cùng lúc

Output Format (Swing)

## 🏄 [TICKER] — Swing Analysis
Setup: [RSI Divergence / BB Squeeze / MACD Cross / ...]
Entry: X,XXX VND | Stop Loss: X,XXX (-X%) | Target: X,XXX (+X%)
R:R: 1:X | Position Size: X% vốn (XX CP)
Timeframe: X-X ngày
⚡ Confidence: [Cao/Trung bình/Thấp]

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References

VN Market

• - references/sector-fundamentals.md — Standard P/E, catalyst, risk per VN sector
• INLINECODE42 — Sector update Q1/2026
• INLINECODE43 — Swing trading, scalping VN

US & Global

• - references/us-equities.md — Top 20 S&P 500, US sector breakdown, P/E benchmarks, ADR/OTC
• INLINECODE45 — Major/cross pairs, factors, sessions, swap rates
• INLINECODE46 — VOO/QQQ/SPY comparison, VNM ETF, EM ETFs, Bond ETFs, DCA strategy

Macro & Asset-specific

• - references/macro-update-2026-03.md — Macro context 03/2026: FED, VN-Index, Iran War
• INLINECODE48 — Crypto/BNB analysis framework
• INLINECODE49 — Gold XAUUSD analysis framework

Knowledge Base

• - references/financial-analysis-knowledge.md — RSI, MACD, P/E, Sharpe, DCA, Global portfolio
• INLINECODE51 — Fibonacci, Elliott Wave, Volume Profile
• INLINECODE52 — Return estimation methodology

Scripts

• - scripts/scan_market.py — Scan VN + US exchanges (HOSE, HNX, NASDAQ, NYSE)
• INLINECODE54 — Scan global markets (US, crypto, forex, commodities)
• INLINECODE55 — Deep technical analysis for a single ticker
• INLINECODE56 — Estimate returns from historical data
• INLINECODE57 — Calculate monthly DCA accumulation
• INLINECODE58 — Analyze existing portfolio → rebalance recommendation (Markowitz)
• INLINECODE59 — Scan market → recommend new optimal portfolio

DCA Calculator:

python3 ~/.openclaw/workspace/skills/market-analyst/scripts/dca_calculator.py [monthly_vnd] [years]
# Example: 2 million VND/month, 10 years
python3 ~/.openclaw/workspace/skills/market-analyst/scripts/dca_calculator.py 2000000 10

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⚠️ Analysis is for reference only, not investment advice. DYOR.