DCF Valuation for M&A Due Diligence
Build discounted cash flow models for target company valuation in M&A contexts.
Unit System (Critical)
- - Storage: Absolute dollars (raw financial data)
- Calculation: Millions (DCF models expect this)
- Display: Smart formatting (B/M/K based on magnitude)
- Never pass raw stored values directly into DCF calculations without unit conversion
Validation Before Calculation
- 1. Verify base revenue exists and is non-zero
- Confirm WACC is between 5-25% (flag outliers with explanation)
- Terminal growth must be less than WACC (Gordon Growth Model constraint)
- Projection period: 5-10 years (default 5)
- Verify EBITDA margins are within plausible industry range
Default Assumptions
| Parameter | Default | Rationale |
|---|
| Tax rate | 21% (US) / 17% (SG) | Adjust per jurisdiction |
| CapEx as % of revenue |
5% | Adjust per industry (SaaS ~3%, manufacturing ~8-12%) |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | Should not exceed long-term GDP growth |
| WACC | CAPM-calculated | Fallback: 10-12% for mid-market |
| Depreciation | % of CapEx | Match to industry capital intensity |
| Working capital change | % of revenue delta | Use historical average if available |
WACC Calculation (CAPM)
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- - Risk-free rate: 10-year Treasury yield
- Equity risk premium: 5-7% (Damodaran)
- Beta: Use comparable public companies, unlever/relever for target capital structure
- Size premium: Add 2-4% for small/mid-market targets
Projection Methodology
- 1. Revenue: Start from last reported, apply growth rates (declining toward terminal)
- EBITDA: Apply margin assumptions (converge toward industry median)
- Free Cash Flow: EBITDA - Taxes - CapEx - Change in Working Capital
- Terminal Value: Gordon Growth Model or Exit Multiple method
- Discount: Apply WACC to each year's FCF + terminal value
Terminal Value
Prefer Exit Multiple method for M&A (matches how buyers think):
- - Apply EV/EBITDA multiple to terminal year EBITDA
- Cross-check with Gordon Growth implied multiple
- Flag if implied perpetuity growth exceeds 3%
Required Output
Always present:
- - Enterprise Value range (low / base / high)
- Equity Value (EV - net debt)
- Implied EV/EBITDA multiple (sanity check against comparables)
- Sensitivity table: WACC (rows) vs Terminal Growth or Exit Multiple (columns)
- Football field chart if multiple valuation methods available
M&A-Specific Considerations
- - Apply a control premium (20-40%) if valuing for acquisition vs. minority stake
- Consider synergy value separately from standalone DCF
- Discount rate should reflect buyer's cost of capital, not target's
- Model integration costs as a deduction from synergy value
- Present with-synergies and without-synergies valuations separately
技能名称：olo-dcf-valuation
详细描述：
并购尽职调查中的DCF估值
构建贴现现金流模型，用于并购场景下的目标公司估值。
单位体系（关键）
- - 存储：绝对美元（原始财务数据）
- 计算：百万（DCF模型预期此单位）
- 显示：智能格式化（根据数值大小显示B/M/K）
- 未经单位转换，切勿将原始存储值直接传入DCF计算
计算前的验证
- 1. 确认基础收入存在且非零
- 确认WACC在5-25%之间（对异常值进行标记并附上解释）
- 终值增长率必须低于WACC（戈登增长模型约束）
- 预测期：5-10年（默认5年）
- 确认EBITDA利润率在合理的行业范围内
默认假设
| 参数 | 默认值 | 理由 |
|---|
| 税率 | 21%（美国）/ 17%（新加坡） | 根据司法管辖区调整 |
| 资本支出占收入比例 |
5% | 根据行业调整（SaaS约3%，制造业约8-12%） |
| 终值增长率 | 2.5% | 不应超过长期GDP增长率 |
| WACC | 基于CAPM计算 | 备用值：中端市场为10-12% |
| 折旧 | 占资本支出的百分比 | 与行业资本密集度匹配 |
| 营运资本变动 | 占收入变动的百分比 | 如有历史平均值则使用 |
WACC计算（CAPM）
权益成本 = 无风险利率 + Beta × 股权风险溢价
WACC = (权益/总价值 × 权益成本) + (债务/总价值 × 债务成本 × (1 - 税率))
- - 无风险利率：10年期国债收益率
- 股权风险溢价：5-7%（达摩达兰数据）
- Beta：使用可比上市公司，根据目标资本结构去杠杆/再杠杆
- 规模溢价：中小型目标公司额外增加2-4%
预测方法
- 1. 收入：从最新报告数据出发，应用增长率（向终值递减）
- EBITDA：应用利润率假设（向行业中位数收敛）
- 自由现金流：EBITDA - 税费 - 资本支出 - 营运资本变动
- 终值：戈登增长模型或退出倍数法
- 贴现：对每年的FCF及终值应用WACC
终值
并购中优先采用退出倍数法（符合买方思维）：
- - 对终值年份的EBITDA应用EV/EBITDA倍数
- 与戈登增长模型隐含倍数交叉验证
- 若隐含永续增长率超过3%则进行标记
必需输出
始终呈现：
- - 企业价值范围（低/基准/高）
- 股权价值（企业价值 - 净债务）
- 隐含EV/EBITDA倍数（与可比公司进行合理性检查）
- 敏感性表格：WACC（行）与终值增长率或退出倍数（列）
- 足球场图（如有多种估值方法）
并购特定考量
- - 若为收购而非少数股权估值，应用控制权溢价（20-40%）
- 将协同价值与独立DCF分开考虑
- 贴现率应反映买方的资本成本，而非目标公司的
- 将整合成本作为协同价值的扣除项进行建模
- 分别呈现含协同效应和不含协同效应的估值
