Coffee Seasonal Trader

This is a remixable template
The default signal requires no external API — it uses date-derived seasonal multipliers (frost calendar, harvest cycle, ENSO phase) applied on top of standard price-threshold conviction sizing.
The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your signal provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Coffee is one of the world's most weather-sensitive commodities — and one of the most predictably seasonal. Three structural patterns repeat every year, and Polymarket participants systematically misprice all three:

1. Brazil frost window — Commercially damaging frost in Brazil's coffee belt (Cerrado Mineiro, Sul de Minas, Mogiana) is only physically possible during June–August. Polar air masses (friagens) push north from Patagonia into Brazil's southern highlands exclusively in winter. Yet retail traders price frost optionality into coffee price markets year-round. A market asking "will arabica hit $5?" in January embeds a frost premium that cannot materialize for six more months. We fade it. In July, we back the same trade at higher conviction.

2. Brazil harvest cycle — The main arabica harvest runs April–September. Post-harvest (October–January), supply is at its seasonal peak and well-understood by the market — price spike markets are overpriced. Pre-harvest (February–March), inventory draws down and supply anxiety is legitimate.

3. ENSO phase (La Niña / El Niño) — La Niña brings drought stress to Brazil's coffee belt, tightening arabica supply. El Niño brings excess rainfall to Vietnam, disrupting Robusta logistics. Current ENSO phase is set via SIMMER_ENSO_PHASE env var (update quarterly from NOAA).

The Core Insight: Frost Optionality Has an Expiry Date

The single most important edge in this skill:

CODEBLOCK0

The historical record confirms: every major Brazilian coffee frost event (1975, 1994, 1997, 2000, 2021) occurred between June 15 and August 31. None have occurred outside this window in the modern record.

This gives us a clean seasonal on/off signal:

Period	Frost possible?	Our adjustment
July	Yes — peak risk	1.30x conviction
June / August

Yes — shoulder | 1.15x conviction |
| May / September | No — but market transitioning | 1.05x |
| October – April | No — meteorologically impossible | 0.80x (fade frost premium) |

Signal Logic

Default Signal: Conviction-Based Sizing with Coffee Seasonal Bias

1. 1. Discover active coffee markets via keyword sweep (prices, crop, weather, futures)
2. Gate: must be a genuine coffee market (_is_coffee_market)
3. Gate: spread ≤ MAXSPREAD, days to resolution ≥ MINDAYS
4. Compute coffee_seasonal_bias(question) = frostmult × harvestmult × enso_mult, capped 0.65–1.40x
5. Conviction = (threshold - p) / threshold × bias (YES) or (p - threshold) / (1 - threshold) × bias (NO)
6. Size = INLINECODE5

The Three Multipliers

Frost window multiplier (date-derived, no API needed):

Month	Label	Multiplier
July	JULY(peak-frost)	1.30x
June, August

FROST-SHOULDER | 1.15x |
| May, September | FROST-MARGINAL | 1.05x |
| October – April | NO-FROST | 0.80x |

Harvest cycle multiplier:

Period	Label	Multiplier
February – March	PRE-HARVEST	1.10x
April – June

HARVEST-START | 1.05x |
| July – September | HARVEST-PEAK | 1.00x |
| October – January | POST-HARVEST | 0.90x |

ENSO multiplier (set via SIMMER_ENSO_PHASE):

ENSO phase	Market type	Multiplier
INLINECODE7	Arabica / Brazil	1.15x (drought stress → bullish)
INLINECODE8

Robusta / Vietnam | 1.00x (neutral) |
| el_nino | Robusta / Vietnam | 1.15x (logistics disruption → bullish) |
| el_nino | Arabica / Brazil | 1.00x (mixed) |
| neutral | Any | 1.00x |

Combined Examples (TODAY: March 22, 2026 — neutral ENSO assumed)

Scenario	Frost	Harvest	ENSO	Final bias
Arabica price spike — March, neutral	0.80x	1.10x	1.00x	0.88x
Brazil frost event — July, La Niña

1.30x | 1.00x | 1.15x | 1.40x cap | | Robusta supply — October, El Niño | 0.80x | 0.90x | 1.15x | 0.83x | | Arabica production — June, neutral | 1.15x | 1.05x | 1.00x | 1.21x |

How Sizing Works

With defaults (YESTHRESHOLD=38%, MINTRADE=$5, MAX_POSITION=$30):

Price p	Conviction (no bias)	July + La Niña (1.40x)	Mar off-season (0.88x)
38% (at threshold)	0%	$5 floor	$5 floor
30%

21% | $8.8 | $5.5 |
| 20% | 47% | $19.7 | $12.4 |
| 5% | 87% | $30 (cap) | $23 |

Keywords Monitored

CODEBLOCK1

Remix Signal Ideas

• - ICE Arabica KC1 spot price: Wire real-time KC1 futures price into compute_signal — compute % distance to question threshold and compare to Polymarket probability; when the market implies a different probability than what the options surface suggests, you have a precise edge
• NOAA ENSO outlook: Automate SIMMER_ENSO_PHASE updates from the monthly NOAA CPC ENSO forecast API (free, JSON) — current hardcoded value updates only when you redeploy; automated updates capture phase transitions earlier than retail
• Brazil frost model: Pull the 10-day ECMWF or GFS 850hPa temperature forecast for Minas Gerais (lat -20, lon -45) — if anomalously cold air is forecast to reach the coffee belt within the frost window, spike conviction to 1.40x regardless of calendar month
• Vietnam rainfall index: Use CHIRPS precipitation anomaly data for Vietnam's Central Highlands during robusta flowering (Oct–Dec) — anomalous drought during flowering predicts 12–18 month forward supply shortage; fade robusta market prices that haven't incorporated this
• Brazil biennial cycle: Track whether current crop year is on-year (high) or off-year (low) in Brazil's biennial production cycle — on-years increase post-harvest supply surplus; off-years tighten; add a ±0.10x multiplier to harvestcyclemult accordingly

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only with --live flag.

Scenario	Mode	Financial risk
INLINECODE16	Paper (sim)	None
Cron / automaton

Paper (sim) | None |
| python trader.py --live | Live (polymarket) | Real USDC |

INLINECODE18 and cron: null — nothing runs automatically until you configure it in Simmer UI.

Required Credentials

Variable	Required	Notes
INLINECODE20	Yes	Trading authority. Treat as high-value credential.

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All declared as tunables in clawhub.json and adjustable from the Simmer UI.

Variable	Default	Purpose
INLINECODE23	INLINECODE24	Max USDC per trade (reached at 100% conviction)
INLINECODE25

5000 | Min market volume filter (USD) |
| SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD | 0.08 | Max bid-ask spread (8%) |
| SIMMER_MIN_DAYS | 3 | Min days until resolution |
| SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS | 8 | Max concurrent open positions |
| SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD | 0.38 | Buy YES if market price ≤ this value |
| SIMMER_NO_THRESHOLD | 0.62 | Buy NO if market price ≥ this value |
| SIMMER_MIN_TRADE | 5 | Floor for any trade (min USDC regardless of conviction) |
| SIMMER_ENSO_PHASE | neutral | ENSO climate phase: la_nina, el_nino, or neutral. Update quarterly from NOAA CPC. |

Dependency

INLINECODE44 by Simmer Markets (SpartanLabsXyz)

• - PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
• GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk