YouTube Channel Trader

This is a remixable template.
The default signal requires no external API — it uses hardcoded channel volatility profiles, a first-hour view velocity model, and day-of-week timing applied on top of standard conviction sizing. Wire in YouTube Data API v3 for live subscriber counts and view velocity, and the edge sharpens dramatically.
The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your signal provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

The top 10 YouTube channels are treated as distinct financial assets — each with its own volatility profile, growth trajectory, and event calendar. Subscriber counts are market cap. Subscriber deltas are daily returns. View velocity on a new video is trading volume.

Prediction markets on YouTube milestones are systematically mispriced because retail treats all channels the same. They don't. MrBeast has 10× the daily growth volatility of Cocomelon. A milestone 5% above current subscribers has a completely different probability for these two channels.

Three structural edges compound:

1. First-hour view velocity mispricing
When a major channel drops a video, view counts do not accumulate uniformly over 24 hours. MrBeast captures ~55% of his 24-hour views in the first hour. A market asking "will this video reach 5M views in the first 2 hours?" is a first-passage probability question. Retail prices it as a terminal probability. The same structural gap that makes BTC weekend markets exploitable makes YouTube flash markets exploitable.

2. Channel volatility profiles
Each of the top 10 channels has a measurable daily subscriber growth σ. Children's content (Cocomelon, Kids Diana Show, Like Nastya, Vlad and Niki) has σ ≈ 0.02%/day — extremely stable, like a stablecoin. Milestone markets are fairly priced. MrBeast has σ ≈ 0.25%/day with positive skew (viral videos spike subscribers; nothing crashes them). Milestone markets for MrBeast chronically underprice the upside tail. PewDiePie has high σ with slight negative skew — comeback/retirement uncertainty dominates.

3. Weekend posting window
MrBeast has posted 62% of his top-100 most-viewed videos on Friday–Sunday UTC. WWE's major PPV events are almost exclusively on weekends (70%). The timing edge is structurally identical to BTC weekend volatility: enter on Thursday–Friday before the drop, capture the pricing gap before the market reprices on actual view velocity.

The Ten Assets

Channel	Subs (M)	Daily σ	Skew	Weekend post %	First-hour %	Content type
MrBeast	370	0.25%	+0.40	62%	55%	viral_challenge
T-Series

275 | 0.04% | +0.10 | 45% | 30% | music | | Cocomelon | 178 | 0.02% | +0.05 | 40% | 20% | children | | SET India | 175 | 0.03% | +0.05 | 50% | 25% | tv_content | | Kids Diana Show | 128 | 0.02% | +0.05 | 38% | 18% | children | | PewDiePie | 111 | 0.15% | −0.05 | 30% | 45% | commentary | | Like Nastya | 122 | 0.02% | +0.05 | 42% | 18% | children | | Vlad and Niki | 120 | 0.02% | +0.05 | 40% | 18% | children | | Zee Music Company | 108 | 0.04% | +0.10 | 48% | 28% | music | | WWE | 101 | 0.08% | +0.20 | 70% | 40% | sports_entertainment |

Signal Logic

Three multipliers — one per structural edge

First-hour velocity multiplier (applied when question contains time-bounded language):

CODEBLOCK0

Channel	firsthourpct	velocity_mult
MrBeast	55%	1.33x
PewDiePie

45% | 1.20x |
| WWE | 40% | 1.13x |
| T-Series / Zee Music | 28–30% | 1.00x |
| Children's channels | 18–20% | 0.84x |

Triggered by: "first hour", "in 2 hours", "in 5 minutes", "in 10 minutes", "within 24 hours", "first day"

Volatility profile multiplier:

CODEBLOCK1

Channel	dailyvol	skew	volmult
MrBeast	0.25%	+0.40	1.30x cap
PewDiePie

0.15% | −0.05 | 1.28x |
| WWE | 0.08% | +0.20 | 1.26x |
| T-Series / Zee | 0.04% | +0.10 | 1.13x |
| Children's channels | 0.02% | +0.05 | 0.80x |

Weekend posting window multiplier:

CODEBLOCK2

Channel	weekend_post	Thursday base	Thursday combined
WWE	70%	1.15x	1.35x cap
MrBeast

62% | 1.11x | 1.28x |
| SET India | 50% | 1.05x | 1.21x |
| PewDiePie | 30% | 0.95x | 1.09x |
| Children's | 38–42% | 0.99x | 1.14x |

Flash play examples (5-min / 10-min resolution)

MrBeast video drops Saturday — "Will video reach 5M views in first hour?" at 28%:

CODEBLOCK3

WWE WrestleMania weekend — subscriber milestone market — Thursday entry:

CODEBLOCK4

Cocomelon subscriber milestone — any day:

CODEBLOCK5
Low-vol children's channels trade at reduced conviction — the skill correctly identifies them as "stablecoins" not worth aggressive sizing.

Sizing table — MrBeast flash play (bias=1.40x, MAX_POSITION=$30)

Price p	Conviction	Biased	Size
38% (threshold)	0%	0%	$5 floor
28%

26% | 37% | $11 | | 18% | 53% | 74% | $22 | | 5% | 87% | 100% | $30 cap |

Keywords monitored

CODEBLOCK6

Remix signal ideas

- YouTube Data API v3 (free): Wire live subscriber counts and view velocity into compute_signal — compare current growth rate to 90-day rolling average; when velocity is 2× average (MrBeast just dropped a video), multiply YES conviction by the velocity ratio; this turns the skill from a timing model into a real-time momentum model
First-hour live feed: During a flash play (5-min/10-min market), poll the YouTube video stats API every 60 seconds and compute the view count accumulation curve; if the first 10 minutes track above the channel's historical P75, back YES on all remaining hour-1 milestones
Subscriber rivalry tracker: The MrBeast vs T-Series subscriber race drove massive Polymarket volume in 2023–24; build a dedicated rivalry module that watches the gap between the #1 and #2 channels and flags markets about rank changes when the gap narrows below 5M
PewDiePie return probability: PewDiePie's irregular posting makes his markets uniquely high-variance; scrape his posting frequency (videos/month) and use a Poisson model to estimate P(posts this week) — wires directly into the weekly/monthly view milestone markets
WWE PPV calendar: Hardcode WWE's annual PPV schedule (WrestleMania, SummerSlam, Royal Rumble, Survivor Series) — these are known subscriber spike events; a 2-week window before each PPV should have weekendpostmult capped at 1.35x regardless of day-of-week

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only with --live flag.

Scenario	Mode	Financial risk
INLINECODE3	Paper (sim)	None
Cron / automaton

INLINECODE5 by default — this allows same-day flash plays. Set SIMMER_MIN_DAYS=1 to restrict to longer-horizon markets only.

INLINECODE7 and cron: null — nothing runs automatically until you configure it in Simmer UI.

Required Credentials

Variable	Required	Notes
INLINECODE9	Yes	Trading authority. Treat as high-value credential.

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

Variable	Default	Purpose
INLINECODE10	INLINECODE11	Max USDC per trade (reached at 100% conviction)
INLINECODE12

Dependency

INLINECODE26 by Simmer Markets (SpartanLabsXyz)

- PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk

YouTube频道交易员

这是一个可复用的模板。
默认信号无需外部API——它使用硬编码的频道波动率概况、首小时观看速度模型以及基于标准置信度规模的周内时机选择。接入YouTube Data API v3获取实时订阅者数量和观看速度后，优势将显著增强。
该技能处理所有底层工作（市场发现、交易执行、安全防护）。您的信号提供超额收益。

策略概述

前10大YouTube频道被视为独立的金融资产——每个频道都有其自身的波动率概况、增长轨迹和事件日历。订阅者数量相当于市值。订阅者增量相当于日收益率。新视频的观看速度相当于交易量。

关于YouTube里程碑的预测市场系统性地存在错误定价，因为散户对所有频道一视同仁。但事实并非如此。MrBeast的日增长波动率是Cocomelon的10倍。对于这两个频道而言，高于当前订阅者数量5%的里程碑概率完全不同。

三种结构性优势叠加：

1. 首小时观看速度错误定价
当一个大频道发布视频时，观看次数并非在24小时内均匀累积。MrBeast在首小时内获得其24小时观看量的约55%。一个询问这个视频会在前2小时内达到500万观看量吗？的市场是一个首达概率问题。散户将其定价为终局概率。使BTC周末市场可被利用的相同结构性差距也使YouTube闪崩市场可被利用。

2. 频道波动率概况
前10大频道中的每一个都有可测量的日订阅者增长σ。儿童内容（Cocomelon、Kids Diana Show、Like Nastya、Vlad and Niki）的σ约为0.02%/天——极其稳定，类似于稳定币。里程碑市场定价合理。MrBeast的σ约为0.25%/天，具有正偏态（病毒视频使订阅者激增；没有任何因素会导致暴跌）。MrBeast的里程碑市场长期低估上行尾部。PewDiePie具有高σ和轻微负偏态——复出/退休不确定性占主导。

3. 周末发布窗口
MrBeast在其前100大观看量最高的视频中，有62%是在UTC时间周五至周日发布的。WWE的主要PPV赛事几乎全部在周末举行（70%）。时机优势在结构上与BTC周末波动率相同：在视频发布前的周四至周五入场，在市场根据实际观看速度重新定价前捕获定价缺口。

十大资产

频道	订阅者（百万）	日σ	偏态	周末发布%	首小时%	内容类型
MrBeast	370	0.25%	+0.40	62%	55%	病毒挑战
T-Series

275 | 0.04% | +0.10 | 45% | 30% | 音乐 | | Cocomelon | 178 | 0.02% | +0.05 | 40% | 20% | 儿童 | | SET India | 175 | 0.03% | +0.05 | 50% | 25% | 电视内容 | | Kids Diana Show | 128 | 0.02% | +0.05 | 38% | 18% | 儿童 | | PewDiePie | 111 | 0.15% | −0.05 | 30% | 45% | 评论 | | Like Nastya | 122 | 0.02% | +0.05 | 42% | 18% | 儿童 | | Vlad and Niki | 120 | 0.02% | +0.05 | 40% | 18% | 儿童 | | Zee Music Company | 108 | 0.04% | +0.10 | 48% | 28% | 音乐 | | WWE | 101 | 0.08% | +0.20 | 70% | 40% | 体育娱乐 |

信号逻辑

三个乘数——每个结构性优势对应一个

首小时速度乘数（当问题包含时间限制性语言时应用）：

velocityedge = channel.firsthour_pct / 0.30 （归一化至平均值）
mult = 1.0 + (velocity_edge - 1.0) × 0.40

频道	firsthourpct	velocity_mult
MrBeast	55%	1.33x
PewDiePie

45% | 1.20x | | WWE | 40% | 1.13x | | T-Series / Zee Music | 28–30% | 1.00x | | 儿童频道 | 18–20% | 0.84x |

触发词：首小时、2小时内、5分钟内、10分钟内、24小时内、第一天

波动率概况乘数：

volmult = 1.0 + channel.dailyvol × 2.0
skew_bonus = channel.skew × 0.5
combined = volmult + skewbonus （上限0.80–1.30x）

频道	dailyvol	skew	volmult
MrBeast	0.25%	+0.40	1.30x上限
PewDiePie

0.15% | −0.05 | 1.28x | | WWE | 0.08% | +0.20 | 1.26x | | T-Series / Zee | 0.04% | +0.10 | 1.13x | | 儿童频道 | 0.02% | +0.05 | 0.80x |

周末发布窗口乘数：

basemult = 0.80 + channel.weekendpost × 0.50
timing = 周四→1.15x, 周五→1.10x, 周六→1.00x, 周日→0.90x, 周一至周三→0.85x
combined = base_mult × timing （上限0.70–1.35x）

频道	weekend_post	周四基础值	周四综合值
WWE	70%	1.15x	1.35x上限
MrBeast

62% | 1.11x | 1.28x | | SET India | 50% | 1.05x | 1.21x | | PewDiePie | 30% | 0.95x | 1.09x | | 儿童频道 | 38–42% | 0.99x | 1.14x |

闪崩交易示例（5分钟/10分钟分辨率）

MrBeast视频周六发布——视频会在首小时内达到500万观看量吗？价格为28%：

velocity_mult = 1.33x (fhp=55% >> 平均值)
vol_mult = 1.30x (σ=0.25%, skew+0.40)
weekend_mult = 1.00x (周六，窗口中期)
combined bias = 1.33 × 1.30 × 1.00 = 1.729 → 上限1.40x

p=28%, YES_THRESHOLD=38%
conviction = (0.38 - 0.28) / 0.38 × 1.40 = 0.37
size = max($5, 0.37 × $30) = $11

WWE摔跤狂热周末——订阅者里程碑市场——周四入场：

velocity_mult = 1.00x (无时间限制性语言)
vol_mult = 1.26x (σ=0.08%, skew+0.20)
weekend_mult = 1.35x (wp=70%, 周四→上限)
combined bias = 1.00 × 1.26 × 1.35 = 1.70 → 上限1.40x

Cocomelon订阅者里程碑——任意一天：

velocity_mult = 0.84x (fhp=18%, 缓慢累积)
vol_mult = 0.80x (σ=0.02%, 非常稳定)
weekend_mult = 1.14x (wp=40%, 周四)
combined bias = 0.84 × 0.80 × 1.14 = 0.77x

低波动率儿童频道以降低的置信度进行交易——该技能正确地将它们识别为不值得激进配置的稳定币。

规模表——MrBeast闪崩交易（bias=1.40x, MAX_POSITION=$30）

价格p	置信度	偏差调整后	规模
38%（阈值）	0%	0%	$5下限
28%

26% | 37% | $11 | |