Startup Financial Model Skill

Build complete 3-statement financial models for early-stage and growth-stage startups. This skill guides Sam Ledger through constructing investor-ready models, running scenario analysis, calculating burn/runway, and producing structured output ready for Excel or Google Sheets.

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When to Use This Skill

Trigger phrases:

• - "Build a financial model for…"
• "How much runway do we have?"
• "Create a 3-statement model"
• "What's our burn rate?"
• "Model out our revenue forecast"
• "Investor asks for a 3-year model"
• "Show me base/bull/bear scenarios"

NOT for:

• - Public company valuation (DCF, comps) — different methodology
• Tax filing or tax planning — use compliance workflows
• Historical bookkeeping — use QBO/accounting integrations
• Real-time actuals syncing — use qbo-automation skill
• Cap table modeling — use cap-table-manager skill

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Core Model Components

1. Revenue Model

Start by identifying the revenue driver type:

Business Type	Primary Driver	Key Metric
SaaS / Subscription	MRR/ARR growth	Churn rate, expansion MRR
Marketplace

GMV × take rate | Transaction volume |
| Services / Agency | Headcount × utilization | Billable hours |
| E-commerce | Orders × AOV | Repeat purchase rate |
| Usage-based | Units × price | Volume growth curve |

Revenue forecasting inputs to collect:
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SaaS Revenue Formula (monthly):
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2. Expense Model (P&L)

Expense categories to model:

COGS (Cost of Goods Sold):

• - Hosting/infrastructure (% of revenue or fixed)
• Payment processing fees (% of revenue)
• Customer support costs (headcount-driven)

Operating Expenses:
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Headcount Planning Template:
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3. P&L Statement

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4. Cash Flow Statement

Three sections:

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5. Balance Sheet

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Burn Rate & Runway Calculator

Gross Burn Rate

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Net Burn Rate

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Runway

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Runway with Milestones

Milestone-adjusted runway = months until Series A, profitability, or breakeven
Break-even month = month where Net Burn = $0 (revenue ≥ expenses)

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Scenario Modeling

Build three scenarios with different assumptions:

Assumption	Bear (Pessimistic)	Base (Expected)	Bull (Optimistic)
MoM Revenue Growth	5%	10%	18%
Monthly Churn

5% | 2.5% | 1% |
| CAC | $800 | $500 | $300 |
| Hiring pace | 50% of plan | 100% of plan | 120% of plan |
| Fundraise timing | +3 months delay | On schedule | -2 months early |

Output for each scenario:

• - Runway (months from today)
• Break-even month
• Cash at end of model period
• Revenue at 12/24/36 months
• Key risk: what causes bear scenario?

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SaaS-Specific Metrics

When modeling SaaS businesses, include these unit economics:

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Output Format

Structured JSON for Export

When generating model output, produce structured data in this format:

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Google Sheets Export Instructions

When producing a Sheets-ready model:

1. 1. Output as CSV blocks per tab: Revenue Model, P&L, Cash Flow, Balance Sheet, INLINECODE6
2. Use formula notation where helpful: =B2*(1+$B$1) style references
3. Highlight assumption cells (color note: yellow = input, blue = formula)
4. Include a Dashboard tab with: Runway, MRR, Burn Rate, Gross Margin % as headline KPIs

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Step-by-Step Workflow

When a user asks to build a financial model:

Step 1: Intake

Collect these inputs (ask if not provided): CODEBLOCK13

Step 2: Build Revenue Forecast

• - Apply driver-based model for the business type
• Calculate monthly revenue for each period
• Show MRR bridge (new / expansion / churn)

Step 3: Build Expense Model

• - Headcount plan with hire dates
• COGS as % of revenue or fixed
• OpEx categories per above

Step 4: Assemble 3 Statements

• - P&L from revenue and expenses
• Cash flow from P&L + working capital changes
• Balance sheet from cumulative cash flow + equity raises

Step 5: Burn & Runway

• - Calculate net burn per month
• Project runway from current cash
• Identify break-even month

Step 6: Scenario Analysis

• - Run base, bear, bull with varied assumptions
• Summarize: how bad does it have to get before we run out of cash?

Step 7: Output

• - Structured JSON or CSV for export
• Narrative summary: key risks, milestones, funding gaps
• Investor-ready summary table

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Example Usage

User: "We have $800k in the bank, burning $65k/month net, growing MRR at 8% per month from $30k base. How long is our runway and when do we break even?"

Sam's response:

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Integration Points

• - crypto-tax-agent — for token/equity-based compensation modeling
• cap-table-manager — for equity dilution modeling alongside funding scenarios
• kpi-alert-system — set alerts when actual vs. model variance exceeds threshold
• qbo-automation — pull actuals from QuickBooks to compare against model
• report-generator — format model output into investor-ready PDF/deck

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Reference: Key Formulas Cheat Sheet

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