Subscription renewal health monitor
You combine subscription pool signals → payment failure tracking → retention emails with compensation psychology so operators see health clearly and recover revenue without sounding punitive.
When to lean in
- - Churn rate up vs prior period.
- Failed charges (expired card, insufficient funds, authentication) frequent.
- Volatility in active subs or MRR without clear acquisition story.
Core workflow
- 1. Pool snapshot — Active subs, new, churned, net movement; optional cohort window.
- Payment failure lens — Failure reasons if known; retry policy; dunning stage gaps.
- Retention + compensation scripts — Email (or SMS) series using compensation psychology: fairness, reciprocity, certainty of fix, optional small tangible make-good when policy allows.
Gather context
- 1. Platform (Stripe Billing, Recharge, Shopify Subscriptions, etc.).
- Churn definition (voluntary cancel vs involuntary fail).
- Current dunning steps and retry count.
- What compensation is allowed (free month, skip box, % off next cycle).
Read references/subscription_playbook.md for dunning stages and compensation framing.
Mandatory outputs (full run)
A) Health table
| Signal | Current | Prior / target | Note |
|---|
| Active subscribers | … | … | … |
| Churn rate |
… | … | voluntary vs involuntary |
| Failed payment rate | … | … | … |
| Recovered after dunning | … | … | if known |
Placeholders OK; state what to export from billing tool.
B) Payment failure tracking (structured)
| Failure type | Share (if known) | Retry / fix | Owner |
|---|
| Card expired | … | Update card link | Dunning email 1 |
| Insufficient funds |
… | Retry schedule | … |
| Authentication | … | 3DS / new PM | … |
C) Retention email series — compensation psychology
Deliver a 3+ message sequence (dunning + optional voluntary churn win-back). Each message must include:
- - Subject line A/B
- Body skeleton (short)
- Compensation psychology label (e.g. reciprocity — small gift after fix; fairness — acknowledge failure; certainty — "we've extended your access until X")
Psychology angles to use (at least two across the series)
- - Fairness — acknowledge failed charge or bad experience without blame.
- Reciprocity — modest make-good after they update payment (credit, extra week, free add-on).
- Loss aversion — what they keep by fixing (access, member price) vs neutral tone.
- Certainty — single clear CTA; "one click to update card."
Avoid manipulative guilt; stay compliant with subscription and email law (easy unsubscribe on marketing; transactional dunning separate per policy).
When NOT to use
- - Single order shipping email only.
- Churn analysis with no actionable comms or failure tracking ask (still OK to give health table only if user insists).
Split with other skills
- - LTV win-back — one-time purchasers; this skill is recurring billing + dunning.
- Payment funnel — one-time checkout; this skill is renewal attempts.
订阅续费健康监控器
您将订阅池信号 → 支付失败追踪 → 结合补偿心理学的留存邮件整合在一起，使运营人员能够清晰了解健康状况，并在不显得惩罚性的情况下挽回收入。
适用时机
- - 流失率较上一周期上升。
- 扣款失败（卡过期、余额不足、身份验证）频繁发生。
- 活跃订阅或MRR出现波动，且无明确的获客原因。
核心工作流程
- 1. 订阅池快照 — 活跃订阅、新增、流失、净变动；可选同期群窗口。
- 支付失败视角 — 已知失败原因；重试策略；催缴阶段差距。
- 留存+补偿文案 — 利用补偿心理学的邮件（或短信）系列：公平性、互惠性、修复确定性、政策允许时提供小额实物补偿。
收集背景信息
- 1. 平台（Stripe Billing、Recharge、Shopify Subscriptions等）。
- 流失定义（主动取消 vs 被动失败）。
- 当前催缴步骤和重试次数。
- 允许的补偿方式（免费月、跳过一箱、下周期折扣）。
阅读 references/subscription_playbook.md 了解催缴阶段和补偿框架。
强制输出（完整运行）
A) 健康表格
… | … | 主动 vs 被动 |
| 支付失败率 | … | … | … |
| 催缴后恢复 | … | … | 如已知 |
允许占位符；说明需从计费工具导出的内容。
B) 支付失败追踪（结构化）
| 失败类型 | 占比（如已知） | 重试/修复 | 负责人 |
|---|
| 卡过期 | … | 更新卡链接 | 催缴邮件1 |
| 余额不足 |
… | 重试计划 | … |
| 身份验证 | … | 3DS/新支付方式 | … |
C) 留存邮件系列 — 补偿心理学
提供3条以上消息序列（催缴+可选主动流失挽回）。每条消息必须包含：
- - 主题行A/B测试
- 正文框架（简短）
- 补偿心理学标签（例如互惠性——修复后赠送小礼物；公平性——承认失败；确定性——我们已将您的访问权限延长至X日）
需使用的心理学角度（整个系列至少两种）
- - 公平性 — 承认扣款失败或不良体验，不指责。
- 互惠性 — 他们更新支付方式后提供适度补偿（积分、额外一周、免费附加功能）。
- 损失厌恶 — 通过修复他们保留的内容（访问权限、会员价格）vs 中性语气。
- 确定性 — 单一明确行动号召；一键更新卡片。
避免操纵性内疚；遵守订阅和邮件法律（营销邮件易取消订阅；交易性催缴按政策分开处理）。
不适用场景
- - 仅限单次订单发货邮件。
- 流失分析无可行通信或失败追踪要求（如用户坚持，仍可仅提供健康表格）。
与其他技能区分
- - LTV挽回 — 一次性购买者；本技能为周期性计费+催缴。
- 支付漏斗 — 一次性结账；本技能为续费尝试。
