技能列表

Monitor Polymarket prediction markets and alert when odds cross a threshold. Use when a user wants to track any Polymarket market probability, set up recurring price checks, or get notified when a market's Yes/No probability exceeds a specific percentage. Covers searching for markets by topic, fetching current odds, and setting up cron-based alerts via Slack or other channels.

Trades distribution-sum violations in social media post-count range markets on Polymarket. Range bins for the same person and date range must sum to ~100% — when they do not, individual bins are mispriced. Also detects local anomalies where a single bin deviates sharply from its neighbors.

Trades monotonicity violations in NHL hockey O/U market ladders and spread-vs-total consistency on Polymarket. Each game spawns multiple O/U lines that must be monotonically decreasing — when the ladder is broken, the mispriced line reverts.

Trades distribution-sum violations in F1 championship winner markets on Polymarket. Driver winner probabilities form a distribution that must sum to ~100% — when the field is collectively overpriced or underpriced, individual driver markets are structurally mispriced.

Trades monotonicity violations in esports Total Kills O/U market ladders on Polymarket. Each esports match spawns multiple kill total thresholds that must be monotonically decreasing — when they are not, it is structural arbitrage. Sizes by conviction with violation magnitude scaling.

Trades distribution-sum violations in chess tournament winner markets on Polymarket. Player winner probabilities must sum to ~100% — when the field total deviates beyond threshold, individual player markets are structurally mispriced.

Trades weekly cyclical patterns in geopolitical prediction markets. Military operations spike Mon-Thu, diplomacy clusters around working days, and weekend staleness creates Monday repricing opportunities. Combines day-of-week timing with conviction-based sizing.

Trades mean reversion on geopolitical markets pushed to probability extremes by breaking news. Markets at >92% or <8% with long time horizons systematically over-react and revert. Combines overreaction bias detection with staleness factor (days-to-resolution) for conviction sizing.

Trades temporal inconsistencies across geopolitical markets with different deadlines. When P(event by later date) < P(event by earlier date), the later-deadline market is underpriced — a mathematical tautology violation. Also detects diplomacy-vs-escalation inversions within the same conflict.

HFT Market Making bot for Polymarket. Live execution via Web3 and CLOB API.

Trades cross-market constraint violations in tennis Set 1 Games O/U, Match Games O/U, Total Sets O/U, Set Handicap, and Set/Match Winner bundles on Polymarket. Match total always exceeds Set 1 total so P(Match O/U X OVER) must be >= P(Set 1 O/U X OVER) and Total Sets O/U 2.5 constrains set handicap pricing. Violations are structural arbitrage sized by conviction.

Trades structural arbitrage between Overwatch BO3 series winner markets and individual game winner markets on Polymarket. P(BO3 winner) must be mathematically consistent with P(Game 1 winner) and P(Game 2 winner) -- when it is not, individual game probabilities imply a different BO3 win probability than the market is pricing, creating a free edge that resolves mechanically.