技能列表

Trades tempo inconsistencies across Dota2 and esports game props on Polymarket. Within the same game first blood timing correlates with kill pace and Ends in Daytime implies a fast stompy game with fewer total kills while rampage and ultra kill require high kill counts. When these tempo indicators contradict each other it is a structural mispricing sized by conviction.

Trades bundle inconsistencies across correlated Dota 2 match props on Polymarket. A single match spawns 28+ prop markets (kills O/U, roshan, barracks, rampage, first blood, ultra kill, daytime) that are fundamentally correlated -- high-kill games have more roshan fights, more barracks destroyed, more rampages. When one prop implies high action but another implies low, this skill detects the inconsistency and trades the outlier toward the action-score consensus. Conviction scales with inconsisten

Trades structural inconsistencies between Dota 2 BO3 winner, individual game winners, and game handicap markets on Polymarket. P(BO3 win) must equal f(P(Game1), P(Game2), P(Game3)) and P(handicap -1.5) must equal P(win both games). When these constraints are violated, it is structural arbitrage sized by conviction.

Trades CS2 BO3 Winner markets when individual map winner probabilities imply a different BO3 outcome on Polymarket. Uses the binomial BO3 model to calculate implied win probability from Map 1, Map 2, and Map 3 prices, then trades the BO3 market when it diverges beyond a minimum violation threshold. Conviction-based sizing scales with the magnitude of the map-vs-BO3 disagreement.

Trades crypto hourly Up/Down markets when sub-interval consensus disagrees with the hourly price on Polymarket. BTC/ETH/SOL 5-min interval markets within the same hour must be consistent with the hourly Up/Down market -- when majority sub-intervals show Up bias but the hourly is priced low, or vice versa, the hourly is mispriced. Conviction-based sizing scales with disagreement magnitude.

Fades strong directional crypto moves on Polymarket 5-minute interval markets. After 3+ consecutive high-conviction same-direction intervals (>58% probability), the next interval tends to mean-revert -- a well-documented microstructure effect in crypto. Targets BTC, ETH, and SOL Up or Down bundles with conviction-based position sizing scaled by streak strength.

Trades cross-coin divergence in 5-minute crypto Up/Down bundles on Polymarket. BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP move together in practice -- when one coin diverges from the group consensus in the same 5-min window, it is likely to revert. Sizes by conviction with divergence magnitude scaling.

Trades BTC "Up or Down" 5-minute interval markets on Polymarket by detecting streaks of 3+ consecutive same-direction intervals and trading mean-reversion on the next interval. Exploits negative autocorrelation in BTC 5-min microstructure returns where retail momentum chasers systematically overprice streak continuation. Conviction scales with streak length beyond minimum threshold.

Analyze Polymarket prediction markets for trading edges. Pair Cost arbitrage, whale tracking, sentiment analysis, momentum signals, user profile tracking. No execution.

Trades mispricings in weather temperature-bin markets by reconstructing the implied probability distribution across bins for the same city and date, detecting sum violations (bins not summing to 100%) and monotonicity breaks on cumulative markets. Covers 14 cities including Munich, Dallas, Seoul, Miami, NYC, and more.

Trades structural mispricings in sports over/under markets by reconstructing the implied probability curve across multiple O/U line values for the same game and detecting monotonicity violations and set-vs-match inconsistencies in tennis.

Trades structural mispricings in crypto price-threshold markets by reconstructing the implied probability distribution curve across multiple strike levels and detecting mathematical violations such as monotonicity breaks and range-sum inconsistencies.